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Will Winter of Soaring Energy Costs & Looming Recession Corrode Europe’s Unity in Propping Up Kiev?_我的网站

A |     记者宋瑶 见习记者于歆8月21日，首家山姆会员店将在石家庄正式开门迎客。    Prospects of a cold and bleak winter characterized by skyrocketing food and energy prices along with forecasts of a looming recession on the European continent have left officials fearful that the anti-Russia consensus could disintegrate, CNN reported.,As the cost of living crisis shows no signs of easing its relentless grip, multiple Western officials and diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity, have indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky might find it increasingly hard to count on the attention of European leaders.,Moscow launched its special military operation to demilitarize and de-Nazify Ukraine on February 24, responding to calls for help from the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Lugansk amid ceaseless attacks by the Kiev regime. The move triggered a swathe of sweeping sanctions against Moscow imposed by the US and its allies, including agreements targeting Russian energy.,Furthermore, the transatlantic alliance has been ramping up military support for Ukraine, pumping weapons to prop up the Kiev regime – something Moscow has repeatedly warned only serves to prolong the crisis.,The restrictive measures, however, have resulted in Western countries’ economies taking a beating, triggering sky-high inflation and driving energy prices to record numbers.,Opinion & Analysis'The Last Laugh': EU Sanctions on Russia Backfiring as Moscow Winning 'Energy War,' Analysts Say11 August, 18:52 GMT,‘Winter Fuel Crisis’,In the aftermath of the operation, following in the footsteps of Washington and London, the EU pledged to end its dependence on Russian fossil fuels before 2030. In April, Brussels announced its intention to slash its demand for Russian natural gas by two-thirds by the end of 2022.,Accordingly, in Germany there is speculation about a possible energy collapse in the winter due to a halt in Russian gas supplies, with Economy Minister Robert Habeck urging citizens to reduce electricity consumption.,Germany’s capital Berlin has turned off the lights illuminating monuments in order to save electricity.,British households are bracing themselves for annual energy bills of up to £4,200 next January, more than three times the amount paid at the beginning of 2022. French shops are facing stiff fines unless they keep their doors shut while the air conditioning is on.,As Russia accounted for about 55% of Europe's total gas imports in 2021, the winter fuel crisis is uppermost in European officials and diplomats’ minds.,This is especially the case amid news that gas futures prices in Europe exceeded $3,000 per thousand cubic meters first time since March 8 at the opening of trading on August 22, according to data from the London-based ICE exchange.,As for oil, almost half of Russian exports of crude go to Europe, with the EU reportedly importing 2.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2021.,Accordingly, the costs of continuing to shower military, financial, and economic support upon Kiev authorities are starting to hit home with increasing force, Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the think tank Chatham House told CNN.,Energy Crisis in EuropeGermany Should Immediately Launch Nord Stream 2, Bundestag Vice Speaker Says19 August, 08:42 GMT,That is why, in his virtual address to the G7 Summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked to "intensify sanctions" on Russia so the crisis ends before winter.,"That may well be why Zelensky said he wanted the war over before Christmas, because the real issues will be getting the West to stick to its promises in the long run," Giles said.,EU countries reached a deal to reduce domestic gas demand in their respective nations by 15% by March 2023. The baseline agreement suggests voluntary measures to reduce gas consumption, but also contains a trigger mechanism that will be activated if the voluntary measures do not yield the desired results and do not help save enough fuel.,Referring to the deal, opposed at the time by Hungary as "unenforceable," "unjustifiable," and outright "harmful," a senior European diplomat was cited as saying:,"Within the European Union, it will be very difficult and we must try to stick to our promise to cut off Russia when it comes to any profits from gas and other sources.",The deal has been criticized for being voluntary, with some officials reportedly fearing that when things reach a critical point, not all EU countries will be prepared to accept the self-inflicted woes.,Donbass. Genocide. 2014-2022Which Western Countries Armed Ukraine19 August, 08:06 GMT,‘No Clear End Point’,The Western strategy of pumping the Kiev regime with arms is also reportedly being increasingly questioned by officials. They are starting to see it as a short-term solution offering no clear end point, the report stated.,"At the start... It was politically quite easy to rally behind Ukraine and make the case for donating weapons and cash," a NATO source was cited as saying.,Germany shed decades of "pacifist" policies since the Second World War and boosted its own defense spending while also sending weapons to Ukraine. Following criticism of “dithering” and holding back arms, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in June his country would send heavy weapons, such as the IRIS-T anti-aircraft systems. Subsequently announced plans on the federal government website mentioned 20 rocket launchers with a caliber of 70mm, as well as 2,000 rockets.,France, when promising to deliver Caesar howitzers, Milan anti-tank missiles, and thousands of shells to Kiev, underscored it was “always with the red line that we will not become parties to the conflict.”,Russia's Special Operation in Ukraine‘They’ve Bankrupted Themselves’: Europe Gutted Own Security to Funnel Kiev Weapons, Expert Says18 August, 23:53 GMT,The UK pledged scores of artillery guns, hundreds of drones, and hundreds more anti-tank weapons to Ukraine. But European countries have been reducing their military commitments for Ukraine since April, Politico reported, citing the Ukraine Support Tracker of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy.,“Despite the war entering a critical phase, new aid initiatives have dried up,” the head of the team in charge of the Ukraine Support Tracker, Christoph Trebesch, was cited as saying.,According to the Tracker, Germany, France, and Italy have not made any significant new pledges to Kiev.,Furthermore, financial assistance to Ukraine from Western countries "dried up" in July, with Kiev receiving only 1.5 billion euros ($1.512 billion) last month. This coincided with Ukraine's Bureau of Economic Security admitting in early July that it had identified cases of the sale of humanitarian aid and military goods supplied by Western countries to Ukraine.,"Over time, the types of weapons we are sending have got more complicated, as has the training required to use them effectively. The good news is, these arms are helping the Ukrainians hold out. The bad news is, the longer the war goes on, the shorter on supply these weapons will be, making them harder to give up," an official told CNN.,"War fatigue" has also been cited by NATO officials.,"Back in February, it was easy to jump on the anti-Putin bandwagon. Now the war is in the boring strategic stage. There are fewer daily gains and losses and there are fewer photo opportunities," a NATO diplomat stated.,Officials weighed in on how corrosion could fray the anti-Russia coalition, doubting that countries might simply withdraw their support. However, the "parameters" of what outcome they support may ostensibly be reviewed.,Notably, some Western European countries such as Germany and France have publicly underscored the need for dialogue between the West and Moscow.,"Do we all still have the same view of the end game? Is it just getting back to the borders of before Russia invaded? Or is it back to pre-2014, before Russia annexed Crimea? And will we deal with Putin after the war or will he need to stand down. These are the long-term questions we need to be asking, but are not. It's better not to ask these questions right now," a European diplomat was cited as saying.,With the cost of living crunch forcing people across the continent to choose between heating their homes and eating, it will become more difficult for political leaders to justify spending funds and energy supporting a country they do not share a frontier with. Particularly as more and more countries do not perceive Moscow as the sole cause of such an existential crisis, the report stated.,There are believed to be fears among multiple Western officials that at some point, political leaders might opt to broker a peace deal and "undercut" the end game that Kiev has been seeking.,"There is growing concern in some quarters that if Ukraine appears to be losing ground to Russia this may accelerate calls for a negotiated settlement," Theresa Fallon, director at the Center for Russia Europe Asia Studies, told CNN, adding that once people sense that Kiev is on the losing side, “they may start to ask why do we continue to supply costly weapons to Ukraine at a time of economic stress.”,Ahead of political challenges, such as an election in Italy on September 25, the arrival of a new prime minister in the UK, and November midterm elections in the US, domestic policies may ultimately begin to dominate the agenda, according to European officials.。过去近一年间，盒马鲜生、京东七鲜、小象超市等新业态零售模式相继落地石家庄，传统卖场北国超市多家门店调改焕新，永辉超市学习胖东来模式完成升级，从“卖商品”转向“享服务”。自2025年6月石家庄市入选首批全国零售业创新提升试点城市后，新超市、老牌店，究竟给石家庄人的日常消费带来了哪些变化？记者进行了走访调查。

B | 吕女士在勒泰中心附近上班，石家庄盒马鲜生开业那天她进去逛了一圈，从此就离不开了。海鲜现挑现做，回家就能吃，免洗免切的净菜拎回家直接下锅，小份果切打开就吃，节省了吕女士为家人准备美食的时间，方便又省心。

C | 除了盒马鲜生，吕女士的手机里还安装着京东七鲜、山姆会员商店的App：下班前在京东七鲜下单些蔬菜、自有品牌的零食，进家门前送达；周末在山姆囤些瑞士卷、鲜牛奶、冷冻黑虎虾，大包装塞满冰箱。顾客在盒马鲜生“日日鲜快手菜”货架前挑选商品。赵阳/摄盒马提供的数据显示，石家庄门店35岁以下消费者占比超65%，线上订单占比接近七成。“石家庄年轻消费者更追求新鲜、便捷和趣味性。”盒马鲜生勒泰中心店副店长侯玉壮说，日日鲜三文鱼、现场制售海鲜、鲜切牛肉是他们的最爱。京东七鲜相关负责人则透露，二环内配送网络已基本实现全覆盖，3公里范围内最快30分钟送达。山姆虽未正式开业，但此前上线的极速达服务已覆盖主城四区，订单密度超出预期。顾客在京东七鲜超市自助收银机前排队结账。赵阳/摄陈先生家在北国超市光华店附近，在这里购物了十多年，他明显感觉到超市在变。主通道从以前勉强错身拓宽到2米多，两辆购物车并行没问题，生鲜区从不到三分之一扩到近一半，海鲜池旁边多了代加工窗口。

D | 2025年，包括光华店、北国店在内的多家北国超市进行了焕新升级，从头顶的灯光到货架陈列、动线区域设置都进行了人性化改变，提升消费体验。

E | 同时期，永辉超市积极学习胖东来模式，商品结构接近胖东来商品结果的80%。传统卖场积极从“卖产品”向卖“生活方式”转变，一位业内人士坦言：“不改不行。新品牌在抢人，而且抢的是年轻人。”零售模式的丰富让消费者有了更多的选择，但消费观念也更理性。裕华区的刘女士通过山姆线上渠道下了三单之后，算了一笔细账：瑞士卷一盒59.8元，单价虽比烘焙店便宜，但一大盒塞满冰箱，一家三口吃了五天，最后两块还是吃不动了。她后来改变了策略：只买牛奶、鸡蛋、冷冻海鲜这些消耗快的商品，蛋糕点心还是去烘焙店买新鲜的。像刘女士这样在“大包装的性价比”和“小家庭的消耗力”之间找平衡的消费者不在少数，不少年轻家庭更习惯“随吃随买”。沃尔玛中国公司事务区域总经理解振兴表示，大包装商品的设计初衷就是主打家庭囤货场景，能够有效减少采购频次、降低单次消费成本，线上极速达搭配独立小份分装，兼顾了不同家庭的多元需求。消费者最终还是得算自己的账——商家提供选项，选择权始终在消费者手里。盒马发布的“盒区房指数”显示，石家庄高达171，远超全国均值100。侯玉壮介绍，盒马在石家庄的业绩在华北区域名列前茅，表明当地消费购买力强、消费频次高、消费活力旺盛。山姆也将辐射范围锁定在石家庄周边，解振兴明确表示，邯郸、邢台乃至郑州、太原的居民都是潜在客群。经贸大学金融学院教师董岚表示，新业态零售模式纷纷入驻石家庄，传统卖场提质焕新，实质是城市消费升级、供给效率提升、商业生态优化的综合体现。消费者正在发生深层次变化，从过去的看中价格实惠转向追求品质、健康和便捷，消费结构自然升级。消费习惯的变化促进商业逻辑的改变，一座城市的商业基因，正在被重新编写。

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